SPR 788 Task 4: Model Testing
Liming Wang
05/25/2017
Task Description
PSU researchers shall apply the newly incorporated mode shift module (in the updated RSPM tool) in the Corvallis Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (CAMPO) to assess how it can inform decision-making and to adjust the model as needed to provide accurate and helpful information. ODOT staff will assist in assembling the necessary data for sensitivity test. Initial testing will be documented by the PSU researchers.
The phases of the testing task are:
Phase 1: Test modules on their own using SLD/NHTS data used in estimation; Test module sensitivity, vary SLD/NHTS inputs one at a time – elasticity response vs. Literature VMT, PMT by mode, total and split by HH income, density, urban form groups
Phase 2: Test module in RVMPO RSPM (using a code wrapper and supplemental RVMPO block group place type inputs) comparing current vs. new outputs, VMT/Alt mode trips at MPO/district geographies (maps) and HH attributes (place types, income, …) – tests full model performance improvement over existing tool using built form variables
Phase 3: Test module in VisionEval (written up to 1st call of this module) – tests to see if module will work in future VisionEval tool
Phase I
For Phase I of Task 4, elasticities of AADVMT and PMT with regard to density (D1B), household income, freeway supply (Freeway lane miles per caipta), transit supply (transit revenue miles per capita) are computed using the 2009 NHTS data. Except for a few unexpected couterintuitive direction of elasticities (bike PMT elasticities wrt D1B), the elasticities are inline with what has been documented in research literature: travel behavior responses to density change is small in magitude. Given the non-linear nature of the models, the elasticities vary by different segments - such as income group, development type, and current density level. Those segments are adopted from what Brian Gregor used in his sensitivity testing for GreenSTEP.
Annual Average Daily VMT (AADVMT)
Model Specification
The specification for the AADVMT model has been documented in Task2. It is replicated here for quick reference.
| metro | nonmetro | |
| (1) | (2) | |
| Drivers | 0.705*** | 0.744*** |
| (0.009) | (0.010) | |
| HhSize | 0.017** | |
| (0.008) | ||
| Workers | 0.186*** | 0.177*** |
| (0.008) | (0.007) | |
| LogIncome | 0.268*** | 0.288*** |
| (0.007) | (0.006) | |
| Age0to14 | 0.107*** | 0.102*** |
| (0.010) | (0.011) | |
| Age65Plus | -0.075*** | -0.077*** |
| (0.009) | (0.007) | |
| log1p(VehPerDriver) | 1.790*** | 1.850*** |
| (0.028) | (0.020) | |
| LifeCycleCouple w/o children | -0.036** | -0.013 |
| (0.016) | (0.016) | |
| LifeCycleEmpty Nester | -0.256*** | -0.208*** |
| (0.018) | (0.019) | |
| LifeCycleSingle | -0.234*** | -0.216*** |
| (0.022) | (0.023) | |
| CENSUS_RNE | -0.109*** | -0.112*** |
| (0.023) | (0.017) | |
| CENSUS_RS | 0.051** | 0.058*** |
| (0.021) | (0.014) | |
| CENSUS_RW | -0.092*** | -0.176*** |
| (0.021) | (0.017) | |
| FwyLaneMiPC | 101.000*** | |
| (21.400) | ||
| D1B | -0.003*** | -0.008*** |
| (0.0003) | (0.003) | |
| D2A_WRKEMP | -0.0002* | |
| (0.0001) | ||
| D3bpo4 | -0.001*** | |
| (0.0002) | ||
| TranRevMiPC:D4c | -0.020*** | |
| (0.003) | ||
| D2A_EPHHM | -0.084*** | |
| (0.022) | ||
| D1B:D2A_EPHHM | -0.027*** | |
| (0.006) | ||
| Constant | -1.330*** | -1.420*** |
| (0.079) | (0.065) | |
| Observations | 42,721 | 61,190 |
| R2 | 0.446 | 0.460 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.446 | 0.459 |
| Residual Std. Error | 0.987 (df = 42703) | 1.010 (df = 61173) |
| F Statistic | 2,026.000*** (df = 17; 42703) | 3,251.000*** (df = 16; 61173) |
| Note: | p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01 | |
Population Density (D1B) Sensitivity
Both the table and figures below demonstrate small negative elasticities of AADVMT to local population density (D1B from Smart Location Database population density at block group level). Non-metropolitan areas have larger elasticities; higher density areas have larger elasticities, and TODs have larger elasticities.
| Δ AADVMT wrt Δ D1B | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | AADVMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 46.8 | -0.075 | -0.151 | -0.227 | -0.296 | -0.365 | ||
| non_metro | 65023 | 55.8 | -0.102 | -0.201 | -0.300 | -0.397 | -0.494 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 55.3 | -0.009 | -0.018 | -0.026 | -0.035 | -0.044 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 50.8 | -0.040 | -0.081 | -0.121 | -0.161 | -0.201 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 46.3 | -0.089 | -0.178 | -0.267 | -0.356 | -0.445 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 33.4 | -0.186 | -0.374 | -0.560 | -0.718 | -0.879 | |
| non_metro | <1k | 45003 | 58.9 | -0.025 | -0.050 | -0.074 | -0.099 | -0.124 | |
| non_metro | 1k-5k | 16470 | 49.8 | -0.219 | -0.437 | -0.654 | -0.871 | -1.086 | |
| non_metro | 5k-10k | 3101 | 45.0 | -0.500 | -0.982 | -1.473 | -1.961 | -2.417 | |
| non_metro | >10k | 449 | 31.2 | -0.758 | -1.432 | -2.027 | -2.546 | -3.184 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 26.1 | -0.056 | -0.114 | -0.171 | -0.220 | -0.268 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 47.3 | -0.083 | -0.166 | -0.248 | -0.326 | -0.408 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 65.6 | -0.094 | -0.187 | -0.280 | -0.372 | -0.464 | |
| non_metro | <$40k | 27719 | 36.3 | -0.075 | -0.147 | -0.218 | -0.287 | -0.357 | |
| non_metro | $40k-$80k | 21443 | 63.1 | -0.108 | -0.216 | -0.323 | -0.430 | -0.536 | |
| non_metro | >$80k | 15861 | 80.0 | -0.140 | -0.278 | -0.417 | -0.554 | -0.692 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 47.4 | -0.044 | -0.089 | -0.133 | -0.178 | -0.222 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 57.1 | -0.026 | -0.051 | -0.077 | -0.103 | -0.129 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 41.7 | -0.087 | -0.173 | -0.259 | -0.345 | -0.431 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 31.5 | -0.126 | -0.285 | -0.440 | -0.555 | -0.668 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 46.9 | -0.085 | -0.169 | -0.253 | -0.329 | -0.406 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 26.6 | -0.172 | -0.341 | -0.509 | -0.674 | -0.837 | |
| non_metro | Employment | 11873 | 51.8 | -0.142 | -0.279 | -0.415 | -0.554 | -0.693 | |
| non_metro | Low Density/Rural | 37061 | 59.4 | -0.029 | -0.057 | -0.086 | -0.113 | -0.141 | |
| non_metro | Mixed | 356 | 39.9 | -0.454 | -0.903 | -1.346 | -1.568 | -2.002 | |
| non_metro | Mixed High | 80 | 31.8 | -0.487 | -0.966 | -1.436 | -1.898 | -2.352 | |
| non_metro | Residential | 15647 | 50.7 | -0.234 | -0.463 | -0.691 | -0.921 | -1.140 | |
| non_metro | TOD | 6 | 27.0 | -0.544 | -1.071 | -1.583 | -2.080 | -2.562 | |
Household Income Sensitivity
As expected, household income has positive elasticities to AADVMT. The elasticities to income is most stable across segments.
| Δ AADVMT wrt Δ income | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | AADVMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 46.8 | 0.695 | 1.335 | 1.930 | 2.480 | 3.000 | ||
| non_metro | 65023 | 55.8 | 0.839 | 1.614 | 2.330 | 3.000 | 3.630 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 55.3 | 0.785 | 1.507 | 2.180 | 2.800 | 3.390 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 50.8 | 0.742 | 1.425 | 2.060 | 2.650 | 3.200 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 46.3 | 0.695 | 1.335 | 1.930 | 2.480 | 3.000 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 33.4 | 0.533 | 1.028 | 1.470 | 1.900 | 2.300 | |
| non_metro | <1k | 45003 | 58.9 | 0.873 | 1.677 | 2.420 | 3.120 | 3.770 | |
| non_metro | 1k-5k | 16470 | 49.8 | 0.780 | 1.498 | 2.170 | 2.790 | 3.370 | |
| non_metro | 5k-10k | 3101 | 45.0 | 0.726 | 1.395 | 2.020 | 2.600 | 3.140 | |
| non_metro | >10k | 449 | 31.2 | 0.499 | 1.024 | 1.510 | 1.890 | 2.320 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 26.1 | 0.470 | 0.905 | 1.300 | 1.680 | 2.040 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 47.3 | 0.716 | 1.377 | 1.990 | 2.560 | 3.100 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 65.6 | 0.888 | 1.705 | 2.460 | 3.170 | 3.830 | |
| non_metro | <$40k | 27719 | 36.3 | 0.636 | 1.224 | 1.770 | 2.280 | 2.760 | |
| non_metro | $40k-$80k | 21443 | 63.1 | 0.925 | 1.778 | 2.570 | 3.310 | 4.000 | |
| non_metro | >$80k | 15861 | 80.0 | 1.080 | 2.073 | 2.990 | 3.850 | 4.660 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 47.4 | 0.705 | 1.355 | 1.960 | 2.520 | 3.050 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 57.1 | 0.803 | 1.543 | 2.230 | 2.870 | 3.470 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 41.7 | 0.646 | 1.242 | 1.790 | 2.310 | 2.790 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 31.5 | 0.490 | 0.938 | 1.390 | 1.810 | 2.200 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 46.9 | 0.695 | 1.337 | 1.930 | 2.480 | 3.000 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 26.6 | 0.466 | 0.896 | 1.200 | 1.570 | 1.870 | |
| non_metro | Employment | 11873 | 51.8 | 0.797 | 1.532 | 2.210 | 2.850 | 3.450 | |
| non_metro | Low Density/Rural | 37061 | 59.4 | 0.878 | 1.687 | 2.440 | 3.140 | 3.790 | |
| non_metro | Mixed | 356 | 39.9 | 0.549 | 1.160 | 1.730 | 2.260 | 2.750 | |
| non_metro | Mixed High | 80 | 31.8 | 0.575 | 1.106 | 1.600 | 1.640 | 2.070 | |
| non_metro | Residential | 15647 | 50.7 | 0.789 | 1.516 | 2.190 | 2.820 | 3.410 | |
| non_metro | TOD | 6 | 27.0 | 0.509 | 0.980 | 1.420 | 1.830 | 2.210 | |
Freeway Supply Sensitivity
Also corraborating previous research and Brian’s finding, the elasticities to freeway supply is positive but small, mostly because most places in the US already have good mobility by vehicle, additional freeways lead households to drive slightly more miles.
| Δ AADVMT wrt Δ FwyLaneMiPC | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | AADVMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 46.8 | 0.172 | 0.344 | 0.515 | 0.688 | 0.862 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 55.3 | 0.227 | 0.454 | 0.682 | 0.911 | 1.141 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 50.8 | 0.190 | 0.380 | 0.571 | 0.763 | 0.955 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 46.3 | 0.162 | 0.324 | 0.486 | 0.649 | 0.812 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 33.4 | 0.116 | 0.231 | 0.343 | 0.460 | 0.576 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 26.1 | 0.116 | 0.233 | 0.348 | 0.465 | 0.583 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 47.3 | 0.178 | 0.357 | 0.536 | 0.715 | 0.895 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 65.6 | 0.218 | 0.436 | 0.654 | 0.873 | 1.093 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 47.4 | 0.182 | 0.364 | 0.547 | 0.730 | 0.914 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 57.1 | 0.220 | 0.441 | 0.662 | 0.884 | 1.107 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 41.7 | 0.148 | 0.297 | 0.445 | 0.595 | 0.744 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 31.5 | 0.115 | 0.229 | 0.345 | 0.460 | 0.576 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 46.9 | 0.169 | 0.338 | 0.507 | 0.677 | 0.848 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 26.6 | 0.103 | 0.205 | 0.309 | 0.412 | 0.516 | |
Transit Supply Sensitivity
As expected, transit supply (transit revenue miles per captia) has negative elasticities to AADVMT. The elasticities are inline with Brian’s numbers. And elasticities are larger for dense areas and for TODs.
| Δ AADVMT wrt Δ TranRevMiPC | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | AADVMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 46.8 | -0.033 | -0.068 | -0.103 | -0.135 | -0.167 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 55.3 | -0.010 | -0.020 | -0.031 | -0.041 | -0.051 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 50.8 | -0.020 | -0.041 | -0.061 | -0.081 | -0.101 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 46.3 | -0.037 | -0.074 | -0.112 | -0.148 | -0.185 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 33.4 | -0.074 | -0.157 | -0.238 | -0.306 | -0.378 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 26.1 | -0.024 | -0.052 | -0.080 | -0.102 | -0.126 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 47.3 | -0.034 | -0.069 | -0.103 | -0.137 | -0.171 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 65.6 | -0.043 | -0.085 | -0.128 | -0.170 | -0.211 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 47.4 | -0.030 | -0.060 | -0.090 | -0.120 | -0.149 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 57.1 | -0.005 | -0.009 | -0.014 | -0.018 | -0.023 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 41.7 | -0.071 | -0.142 | -0.213 | -0.283 | -0.353 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 31.5 | -0.028 | -0.092 | -0.155 | -0.183 | -0.246 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 46.9 | -0.029 | -0.060 | -0.090 | -0.118 | -0.147 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 26.6 | -0.301 | -0.598 | -0.890 | -1.178 | -1.418 | |
Bike PMT
Model specification
The specification for the Bike PMT model has been documented in Task2. Here it is replicated for a quick reference.
## $metro
##
## Call:
## pscl::hurdle(formula = int_cround(td.miles.Bike) ~ AADVMT + Workers +
## LogIncome + LifeCycle + Age0to14 + CENSUS_R + FwyLaneMiPC +
## D4c + TranRevMiPC:D4c + D1B + D3apo | AADVMT + LogIncome + Workers +
## LifeCycle + Age0to14 + CENSUS_R + D1B + D2A_EPHHM + D5 + FwyLaneMiPC +
## TranRevMiPC, data = ., na.action = na.exclude, weights = .$hhwgt)
##
## Pearson residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -2.1930 -0.1560 -0.0898 -0.0513 78.2903
##
## Count model coefficients (truncated poisson with log link):
## Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept) -1.156170 0.193752 -5.97
## AADVMT 0.000925 0.000243 3.80
## Workers 0.151733 0.014670 10.34
## LogIncome 0.200522 0.016369 12.25
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children 0.513038 0.029628 17.32
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester 0.202835 0.045990 4.41
## LifeCycleSingle 0.231229 0.060025 3.85
## Age0to14 -0.123288 0.014875 -8.29
## CENSUS_RNE -0.088683 0.047491 -1.87
## CENSUS_RS 0.198412 0.033456 5.93
## CENSUS_RW 0.189267 0.031299 6.05
## FwyLaneMiPC -164.434920 55.699729 -2.95
## D4c -0.001398 0.000326 -4.29
## D1B -0.004317 0.000785 -5.50
## D3apo 0.017603 0.001955 9.01
## D4c:TranRevMiPC 0.111221 0.012385 8.98
## Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) 0.0000000024 ***
## AADVMT 0.00014 ***
## Workers < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LogIncome < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester 0.0000103191 ***
## LifeCycleSingle 0.00012 ***
## Age0to14 < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## CENSUS_RNE 0.06185 .
## CENSUS_RS 0.0000000030 ***
## CENSUS_RW 0.0000000015 ***
## FwyLaneMiPC 0.00316 **
## D4c 0.0000174944 ***
## D1B 0.0000000388 ***
## D3apo < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## D4c:TranRevMiPC < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## Zero hurdle model coefficients (binomial with logit link):
## Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept) -4.055517 0.425400 -9.53
## AADVMT -0.003556 0.000728 -4.88
## LogIncome 0.084590 0.037258 2.27
## Workers 0.333631 0.036441 9.16
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children -0.495908 0.077771 -6.38
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester -0.839034 0.105981 -7.92
## LifeCycleSingle -1.503947 0.136814 -10.99
## Age0to14 0.422132 0.029329 14.39
## CENSUS_RNE -0.752382 0.102230 -7.36
## CENSUS_RS -0.018906 0.075344 -0.25
## CENSUS_RW 0.217610 0.073261 2.97
## D1B -0.006395 0.002121 -3.02
## D2A_EPHHM 0.231721 0.118776 1.95
## D5 0.026053 0.005287 4.93
## FwyLaneMiPC -563.361545 129.407192 -4.35
## TranRevMiPC -6.785162 2.628698 -2.58
## Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## AADVMT 0.0000010493363211 ***
## LogIncome 0.0232 *
## Workers < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children 0.0000000001811333 ***
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester 0.0000000000000024 ***
## LifeCycleSingle < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## Age0to14 < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## CENSUS_RNE 0.0000000000001843 ***
## CENSUS_RS 0.8019
## CENSUS_RW 0.0030 **
## D1B 0.0026 **
## D2A_EPHHM 0.0511 .
## D5 0.0000008322243770 ***
## FwyLaneMiPC 0.0000134040952526 ***
## TranRevMiPC 0.0098 **
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Number of iterations in BFGS optimization: 63
## Log-likelihood: -1.29e+04 on 32 Df
##
## $non_metro
##
## Call:
## pscl::hurdle(formula = int_cround(td.miles.Bike) ~ AADVMT + HhSize +
## LogIncome + HhSize + LifeCycle + Age0to14 + Age65Plus + D1B +
## D3bpo4 | AADVMT + LogIncome + Workers + LifeCycle + Age0to14 +
## D1B + D2A_EPHHM + D3bpo4, data = ., na.action = na.exclude,
## weights = .$hhwgt)
##
## Pearson residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -1.8557 -0.1141 -0.0641 -0.0381 126.8273
##
## Count model coefficients (truncated poisson with log link):
## Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept) -3.583887 0.249132 -14.39
## AADVMT 0.000473 0.000218 2.17
## HhSize 0.123153 0.014044 8.77
## LogIncome 0.414544 0.020972 19.77
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children 0.831324 0.041390 20.09
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester 0.642947 0.051906 12.39
## LifeCycleSingle 0.709623 0.063863 11.11
## Age0to14 -0.254262 0.021604 -11.77
## Age65Plus 0.217058 0.024878 8.72
## D1B 0.010425 0.003947 2.64
## D3bpo4 0.005256 0.000481 10.93
## Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) <0.0000000000000002 ***
## AADVMT 0.0303 *
## HhSize <0.0000000000000002 ***
## LogIncome <0.0000000000000002 ***
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children <0.0000000000000002 ***
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester <0.0000000000000002 ***
## LifeCycleSingle <0.0000000000000002 ***
## Age0to14 <0.0000000000000002 ***
## Age65Plus <0.0000000000000002 ***
## D1B 0.0083 **
## D3bpo4 <0.0000000000000002 ***
## Zero hurdle model coefficients (binomial with logit link):
## Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept) -6.70698 0.43666 -15.36
## AADVMT -0.00359 0.00065 -5.53
## LogIncome 0.30930 0.04063 7.61
## Workers 0.10601 0.03821 2.77
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children -1.11616 0.09390 -11.89
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester -0.83680 0.09753 -8.58
## LifeCycleSingle -1.16063 0.12386 -9.37
## Age0to14 0.35660 0.03072 11.61
## D1B 0.02310 0.00770 3.00
## D2A_EPHHM 0.34220 0.12682 2.70
## D3bpo4 0.00355 0.00119 2.99
## Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## AADVMT 0.000000032794116 ***
## LogIncome 0.000000000000027 ***
## Workers 0.0055 **
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LifeCycleSingle < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## Age0to14 < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## D1B 0.0027 **
## D2A_EPHHM 0.0070 **
## D3bpo4 0.0028 **
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Number of iterations in BFGS optimization: 37
## Log-likelihood: -1.13e+04 on 22 DfPopulation Density (D1B) Sensitivity
The elasticity estimates of bike person miles traveled per household with respect to population density (D1B) is negative due to the negative D1B coefficient in the model specification. Alternative model specifications have been tested with other density variables (D1C - job density, D1D - activity density) and interactions with D2 variables, the negative coefficient has been persistent.
The elasticities are the largest for the densest (>10,000 person/sq mile) non-metro areas, with density increases 50%, the bike PMT more than doubled for households living in these areas.
| Δ BikePMT wrt Δ D1B | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | BikePMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 0.1708 | -0.002 | -0.004 | -0.005 | -0.007 | -0.009 | ||
| non_metro | 65023 | 0.1519 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.005 | 0.007 | 0.009 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 0.1324 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.001 | -0.001 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 0.1614 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.002 | -0.003 | -0.004 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 0.1893 | -0.002 | -0.004 | -0.006 | -0.008 | -0.010 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 0.1841 | -0.006 | -0.011 | -0.016 | -0.021 | -0.026 | |
| non_metro | <1k | 45003 | 0.1311 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | |
| non_metro | 1k-5k | 16470 | 0.1833 | 0.002 | 0.005 | 0.007 | 0.010 | 0.012 | |
| non_metro | 5k-10k | 3101 | 0.2521 | 0.009 | 0.017 | 0.027 | 0.036 | 0.046 | |
| non_metro | >10k | 449 | 0.4678 | 0.081 | 0.177 | 0.292 | 0.427 | 0.588 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 0.0874 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.003 | -0.004 | -0.005 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 0.1496 | -0.002 | -0.003 | -0.005 | -0.006 | -0.007 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 0.2523 | -0.003 | -0.005 | -0.008 | -0.010 | -0.013 | |
| non_metro | <$40k | 27719 | 0.0839 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.005 | 0.008 | 0.010 | |
| non_metro | $40k-$80k | 21443 | 0.1592 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.006 | 0.007 | |
| non_metro | >$80k | 15861 | 0.2505 | 0.002 | 0.004 | 0.006 | 0.009 | 0.011 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 0.1586 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.003 | -0.004 | -0.005 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 0.1450 | 0.000 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.002 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 0.1972 | -0.002 | -0.004 | -0.007 | -0.009 | -0.011 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 0.1929 | -0.004 | -0.008 | -0.011 | -0.014 | -0.018 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 0.1683 | -0.002 | -0.004 | -0.006 | -0.007 | -0.009 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 0.5680 | -0.021 | -0.040 | -0.059 | -0.076 | -0.092 | |
| non_metro | Employment | 11873 | 0.1674 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.005 | 0.007 | |
| non_metro | Low Density/Rural | 37061 | 0.1301 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.006 | |
| non_metro | Mixed | 356 | 0.2285 | 0.008 | 0.018 | 0.028 | 0.038 | 0.051 | |
| non_metro | Mixed High | 80 | 0.2117 | 0.008 | 0.017 | 0.027 | 0.037 | 0.049 | |
| non_metro | Residential | 15647 | 0.1906 | 0.004 | 0.007 | 0.011 | 0.015 | 0.019 | |
| non_metro | TOD | 6 | 0.4015 | 0.026 | 0.055 | 0.087 | 0.122 | 0.160 | |
Household AADVMT Sensitivity
To capture the relationship between driving and usage of other modes, we include AADVMT in models of non-driving modes. Bike PMT consistenly has a negative elasticity to AADVMT with relatively little variations across segments.
| Δ BikePMT wrt Δ AADVMT | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | BikePMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 0.1708 | -0.003 | -0.006 | -0.008 | -0.011 | -0.014 | ||
| non_metro | 65023 | 0.1519 | -0.003 | -0.006 | -0.009 | -0.012 | -0.015 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 0.1324 | -0.003 | -0.005 | -0.008 | -0.010 | -0.012 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 0.1614 | -0.003 | -0.006 | -0.008 | -0.011 | -0.013 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 0.1893 | -0.003 | -0.006 | -0.009 | -0.012 | -0.015 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 0.1841 | -0.002 | -0.005 | -0.007 | -0.010 | -0.012 | |
| non_metro | <1k | 45003 | 0.1311 | -0.003 | -0.006 | -0.008 | -0.011 | -0.014 | |
| non_metro | 1k-5k | 16470 | 0.1833 | -0.003 | -0.007 | -0.010 | -0.013 | -0.016 | |
| non_metro | 5k-10k | 3101 | 0.2521 | -0.004 | -0.009 | -0.013 | -0.017 | -0.021 | |
| non_metro | >10k | 449 | 0.4678 | -0.006 | -0.011 | -0.016 | -0.022 | -0.027 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 0.0874 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.003 | -0.004 | -0.005 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 0.1496 | -0.002 | -0.005 | -0.007 | -0.009 | -0.011 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 0.2523 | -0.005 | -0.009 | -0.014 | -0.018 | -0.022 | |
| non_metro | <$40k | 27719 | 0.0839 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.003 | -0.004 | -0.006 | |
| non_metro | $40k-$80k | 21443 | 0.1592 | -0.003 | -0.006 | -0.009 | -0.012 | -0.015 | |
| non_metro | >$80k | 15861 | 0.2505 | -0.006 | -0.012 | -0.018 | -0.023 | -0.029 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 0.1586 | -0.003 | -0.005 | -0.008 | -0.010 | -0.013 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 0.1450 | -0.003 | -0.006 | -0.008 | -0.011 | -0.014 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 0.1972 | -0.003 | -0.006 | -0.008 | -0.011 | -0.014 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 0.1929 | -0.002 | -0.005 | -0.007 | -0.010 | -0.012 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 0.1683 | -0.003 | -0.006 | -0.008 | -0.011 | -0.014 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 0.5680 | -0.005 | -0.011 | -0.016 | -0.021 | -0.026 | |
| non_metro | Employment | 11873 | 0.1674 | -0.003 | -0.006 | -0.010 | -0.013 | -0.016 | |
| non_metro | Low Density/Rural | 37061 | 0.1301 | -0.003 | -0.006 | -0.008 | -0.011 | -0.014 | |
| non_metro | Mixed | 356 | 0.2285 | -0.004 | -0.007 | -0.011 | -0.015 | -0.018 | |
| non_metro | Mixed High | 80 | 0.2117 | -0.003 | -0.006 | -0.010 | -0.013 | -0.016 | |
| non_metro | Residential | 15647 | 0.1906 | -0.004 | -0.007 | -0.010 | -0.014 | -0.017 | |
| non_metro | TOD | 6 | 0.4015 | -0.003 | -0.006 | -0.010 | -0.013 | -0.016 | |
Household Income Sensitivity
Bike PMT has a positive elasticity to household income.
| Δ BikePMT wrt Δ income | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | BikePMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 0.1708 | 0.005 | 0.009 | 0.013 | 0.017 | 0.020 | ||
| non_metro | 65023 | 0.1519 | 0.010 | 0.021 | 0.031 | 0.040 | 0.050 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 0.1324 | 0.003 | 0.007 | 0.010 | 0.013 | 0.015 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 0.1614 | 0.004 | 0.008 | 0.012 | 0.016 | 0.019 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 0.1893 | 0.005 | 0.010 | 0.014 | 0.018 | 0.022 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 0.1841 | 0.005 | 0.010 | 0.014 | 0.018 | 0.022 | |
| non_metro | <1k | 45003 | 0.1311 | 0.009 | 0.018 | 0.026 | 0.035 | 0.043 | |
| non_metro | 1k-5k | 16470 | 0.1833 | 0.013 | 0.025 | 0.037 | 0.049 | 0.060 | |
| non_metro | 5k-10k | 3101 | 0.2521 | 0.017 | 0.034 | 0.051 | 0.067 | 0.083 | |
| non_metro | >10k | 449 | 0.4678 | 0.030 | 0.060 | 0.089 | 0.116 | 0.144 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 0.0874 | 0.002 | 0.004 | 0.006 | 0.008 | 0.010 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 0.1496 | 0.004 | 0.008 | 0.011 | 0.015 | 0.018 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 0.2523 | 0.007 | 0.013 | 0.019 | 0.025 | 0.030 | |
| non_metro | <$40k | 27719 | 0.0839 | 0.006 | 0.011 | 0.017 | 0.022 | 0.027 | |
| non_metro | $40k-$80k | 21443 | 0.1592 | 0.011 | 0.022 | 0.032 | 0.042 | 0.052 | |
| non_metro | >$80k | 15861 | 0.2505 | 0.017 | 0.034 | 0.051 | 0.067 | 0.083 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 0.1586 | 0.004 | 0.008 | 0.012 | 0.015 | 0.019 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 0.1450 | 0.004 | 0.007 | 0.011 | 0.014 | 0.017 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 0.1972 | 0.005 | 0.010 | 0.015 | 0.019 | 0.023 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 0.1929 | 0.005 | 0.010 | 0.014 | 0.019 | 0.023 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 0.1683 | 0.004 | 0.009 | 0.013 | 0.016 | 0.020 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 0.5680 | 0.015 | 0.030 | 0.043 | 0.056 | 0.068 | |
| non_metro | Employment | 11873 | 0.1674 | 0.012 | 0.023 | 0.034 | 0.044 | 0.055 | |
| non_metro | Low Density/Rural | 37061 | 0.1301 | 0.009 | 0.018 | 0.026 | 0.034 | 0.043 | |
| non_metro | Mixed | 356 | 0.2285 | 0.016 | 0.031 | 0.046 | 0.061 | 0.075 | |
| non_metro | Mixed High | 80 | 0.2117 | 0.015 | 0.029 | 0.043 | 0.057 | 0.070 | |
| non_metro | Residential | 15647 | 0.1906 | 0.013 | 0.026 | 0.038 | 0.051 | 0.063 | |
| non_metro | TOD | 6 | 0.4015 | 0.028 | 0.056 | 0.083 | 0.109 | 0.135 | |
Freeway Supply Sensitivity
| Δ BikePMT wrt Δ FwyLaneMiPC | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | BikePMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 0.1708 | -0.007 | -0.013 | -0.020 | -0.026 | -0.031 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 0.1324 | -0.006 | -0.011 | -0.017 | -0.022 | -0.026 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 0.1614 | -0.007 | -0.013 | -0.019 | -0.025 | -0.031 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 0.1893 | -0.007 | -0.014 | -0.021 | -0.028 | -0.034 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 0.1841 | -0.007 | -0.013 | -0.020 | -0.026 | -0.032 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 0.0874 | -0.003 | -0.007 | -0.010 | -0.013 | -0.016 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 0.1496 | -0.006 | -0.012 | -0.017 | -0.022 | -0.028 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 0.2523 | -0.010 | -0.020 | -0.029 | -0.038 | -0.046 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 0.1586 | -0.007 | -0.013 | -0.019 | -0.024 | -0.030 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 0.1450 | -0.006 | -0.012 | -0.018 | -0.023 | -0.028 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 0.1972 | -0.008 | -0.015 | -0.022 | -0.029 | -0.035 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 0.1929 | -0.007 | -0.014 | -0.021 | -0.027 | -0.033 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 0.1683 | -0.007 | -0.013 | -0.019 | -0.025 | -0.031 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 0.5680 | -0.021 | -0.041 | -0.060 | -0.078 | -0.096 | |
Transit Supply Sensitivity
| Δ BikePMT wrt Δ TranRevMiPC | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | BikePMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 0.1708 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.006 | 0.012 | 0.021 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 0.1324 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.003 | -0.004 | -0.004 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 0.1614 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 0.1893 | 0.000 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.001 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 0.1841 | 0.011 | 0.027 | 0.051 | 0.088 | 0.146 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 0.0874 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.005 | 0.008 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 0.1496 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.002 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 0.2523 | 0.003 | 0.007 | 0.015 | 0.027 | 0.047 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 0.1586 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.002 | -0.003 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 0.1450 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.004 | -0.005 | -0.006 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 0.1972 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.005 | 0.007 | 0.010 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 0.1929 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.003 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 0.1683 | 0.000 | -0.001 | -0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 0.5680 | 0.158 | 0.398 | 0.769 | 1.356 | 2.294 | |
Transit PMT
Model specification
The specification for the Transit PMT model has been documented in Task2. Here it is replicated for a quick reference.
## $metro
##
## Call:
## pscl::hurdle(formula = int_cround(td.miles.Transit) ~ AADVMT + Workers +
## LogIncome + VehPerDriver + LifeCycle + Age0to14 + CENSUS_R +
## D1B + D2A_EPHHM + FwyLaneMiPC + TranRevMiPC + D4c + D5 + D3bpo4 |
## AADVMT + Workers + LogIncome + LifeCycle + Age0to14 + CENSUS_R +
## D1B:D2A_EPHHM + D3bpo4 + D5 + TranRevMiPC + TranRevMiPC:D4c,
## data = ., na.action = na.exclude, weights = .$hhwgt)
##
## Pearson residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -6.9402 -0.2563 -0.1328 -0.0688 128.5624
##
## Count model coefficients (truncated poisson with log link):
## Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept) 1.3968934 0.0506707 27.57
## AADVMT 0.0010530 0.0000867 12.15
## Workers 0.0348845 0.0044274 7.88
## LogIncome 0.1433907 0.0044881 31.95
## VehPerDriver -0.1942173 0.0107764 -18.02
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children 0.1447269 0.0093129 15.54
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester 0.0408172 0.0140119 2.91
## LifeCycleSingle -0.0711508 0.0167510 -4.25
## Age0to14 -0.0248657 0.0040674 -6.11
## CENSUS_RNE 0.0867016 0.0104438 8.30
## CENSUS_RS 0.1154482 0.0099818 11.57
## CENSUS_RW 0.0436822 0.0103840 4.21
## D1B 0.0015231 0.0000903 16.86
## D2A_EPHHM 0.1428161 0.0151227 9.44
## FwyLaneMiPC -483.4617054 18.8991667 -25.58
## TranRevMiPC 4.2314301 0.2934659 14.42
## D4c 0.0007555 0.0000297 25.45
## D5 -0.0182501 0.0005917 -30.84
## D3bpo4 -0.0014674 0.0001007 -14.57
## Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## AADVMT < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## Workers 0.0000000000000033 ***
## LogIncome < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## VehPerDriver < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester 0.0036 **
## LifeCycleSingle 0.0000216113138666 ***
## Age0to14 0.0000000009751348 ***
## CENSUS_RNE < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## CENSUS_RS < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## CENSUS_RW 0.0000259134214371 ***
## D1B < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## D2A_EPHHM < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## FwyLaneMiPC < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## TranRevMiPC < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## D4c < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## D5 < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## D3bpo4 < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## Zero hurdle model coefficients (binomial with logit link):
## Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept) -0.708854 0.214059 -3.31
## AADVMT -0.007184 0.000461 -15.59
## Workers 0.423336 0.021651 19.55
## LogIncome -0.174968 0.019946 -8.77
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children -0.952405 0.045605 -20.88
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester -1.528624 0.063059 -24.24
## LifeCycleSingle -1.678198 0.067230 -24.96
## Age0to14 0.416430 0.018681 22.29
## CENSUS_RNE -0.117512 0.049835 -2.36
## CENSUS_RS -0.009735 0.045683 -0.21
## CENSUS_RW -0.503523 0.047138 -10.68
## D3bpo4 0.001098 0.000478 2.30
## D5 0.022575 0.003331 6.78
## TranRevMiPC 26.744452 1.284161 20.83
## D1B:D2A_EPHHM 0.011163 0.001461 7.64
## TranRevMiPC:D4c 0.037776 0.004319 8.75
## Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) 0.00093 ***
## AADVMT < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## Workers < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LogIncome < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LifeCycleSingle < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## Age0to14 < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## CENSUS_RNE 0.01837 *
## CENSUS_RS 0.83125
## CENSUS_RW < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## D3bpo4 0.02165 *
## D5 0.000000000012205 ***
## TranRevMiPC < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## D1B:D2A_EPHHM 0.000000000000021 ***
## TranRevMiPC:D4c < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Number of iterations in BFGS optimization: 41
## Log-likelihood: -8.4e+04 on 35 Df
##
## $non_metro
##
## Call:
## pscl::hurdle(formula = int_cround(td.miles.Transit) ~ AADVMT + HhSize +
## LogIncome + VehPerDriver + LifeCycle + Age0to14 + Age65Plus +
## CENSUS_R + D1B + D1B:D2A_EPHHM + D3bmm4 | AADVMT + Workers +
## LogIncome + HhSize + Age0to14 + CENSUS_R + D3bmm4 + D1B + D1B:D2A_EPHHM,
## data = ., na.action = na.exclude, weights = .$hhwgt)
##
## Pearson residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -12.4581 -0.1661 -0.0890 -0.0502 139.5826
##
## Count model coefficients (truncated poisson with log link):
## Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept) 0.9194978 0.0596973 15.40
## AADVMT 0.0007485 0.0000664 11.28
## HhSize 0.2131211 0.0033743 63.16
## LogIncome 0.0984393 0.0052552 18.73
## VehPerDriver 0.1918384 0.0068071 28.18
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children 0.8616579 0.0199820 43.12
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester 0.6639761 0.0242690 27.36
## LifeCycleSingle 0.9675740 0.0365964 26.44
## Age0to14 -0.0530107 0.0045495 -11.65
## Age65Plus 0.0801120 0.0108367 7.39
## CENSUS_RNE -0.0582363 0.0117882 -4.94
## CENSUS_RS -0.0022070 0.0088806 -0.25
## CENSUS_RW -0.3119044 0.0124618 -25.03
## D1B 0.0094453 0.0024589 3.84
## D3bmm4 -0.0066420 0.0010582 -6.28
## D1B:D2A_EPHHM -0.0826449 0.0051319 -16.10
## Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## AADVMT < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## HhSize < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LogIncome < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## VehPerDriver < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LifeCycleSingle < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## Age0to14 < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## Age65Plus 0.00000000000014 ***
## CENSUS_RNE 0.00000078032870 ***
## CENSUS_RS 0.80373
## CENSUS_RW < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## D1B 0.00012 ***
## D3bmm4 0.00000000034612 ***
## D1B:D2A_EPHHM < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## Zero hurdle model coefficients (binomial with logit link):
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -4.845286 0.285463 -16.97 < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## AADVMT 0.000841 0.000348 2.42 0.01564 *
## Workers 0.167486 0.024236 6.91 0.0000000000048 ***
## LogIncome 0.036775 0.026458 1.39 0.16454
## HhSize 0.467070 0.016865 27.69 < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## Age0to14 0.559119 0.024405 22.91 < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## CENSUS_RNE 0.094263 0.061732 1.53 0.12677
## CENSUS_RS -0.178302 0.046972 -3.80 0.00015 ***
## CENSUS_RW -0.535953 0.061787 -8.67 < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## D3bmm4 -0.019728 0.004463 -4.42 0.0000098674287 ***
## D1B -0.051344 0.013044 -3.94 0.0000827745547 ***
## D1B:D2A_EPHHM 0.086518 0.025021 3.46 0.00054 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Number of iterations in BFGS optimization: 29
## Log-likelihood: -6.05e+04 on 28 DfPopulation Density (D1B) Sensitivity
| Δ TransitPMT wrt Δ D1B | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | TransitPMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 1.373 | 0.011 | 0.023 | 0.035 | 0.048 | 0.060 | ||
| non_metro | 65023 | 1.601 | -0.007 | -0.015 | -0.022 | -0.029 | -0.036 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 1.154 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.004 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 1.219 | 0.003 | 0.007 | 0.010 | 0.014 | 0.017 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 1.256 | 0.008 | 0.015 | 0.023 | 0.030 | 0.038 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 2.233 | 0.052 | 0.105 | 0.160 | 0.216 | 0.274 | |
| non_metro | <1k | 45003 | 1.804 | -0.002 | -0.005 | -0.007 | -0.010 | -0.012 | |
| non_metro | 1k-5k | 16470 | 1.207 | -0.016 | -0.032 | -0.048 | -0.064 | -0.079 | |
| non_metro | 5k-10k | 3101 | 0.825 | -0.030 | -0.058 | -0.086 | -0.112 | -0.138 | |
| non_metro | >10k | 449 | 0.549 | -0.033 | -0.065 | -0.093 | -0.120 | -0.145 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 0.935 | 0.009 | 0.018 | 0.027 | 0.036 | 0.046 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 1.236 | 0.010 | 0.021 | 0.032 | 0.043 | 0.055 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 1.822 | 0.014 | 0.029 | 0.044 | 0.059 | 0.075 | |
| non_metro | <$40k | 27719 | 1.037 | -0.005 | -0.009 | -0.014 | -0.018 | -0.023 | |
| non_metro | $40k-$80k | 21443 | 1.739 | -0.008 | -0.015 | -0.022 | -0.030 | -0.037 | |
| non_metro | >$80k | 15861 | 2.313 | -0.011 | -0.023 | -0.034 | -0.044 | -0.055 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 1.384 | 0.007 | 0.014 | 0.021 | 0.028 | 0.035 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 1.181 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.005 | 0.007 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 1.456 | 0.015 | 0.031 | 0.047 | 0.063 | 0.079 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 2.249 | 0.085 | 0.172 | 0.262 | 0.354 | 0.449 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 1.340 | 0.011 | 0.022 | 0.033 | 0.045 | 0.057 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 3.169 | 0.078 | 0.158 | 0.239 | 0.322 | 0.406 | |
| non_metro | Employment | 11873 | 1.478 | -0.009 | -0.017 | -0.026 | -0.034 | -0.042 | |
| non_metro | Low Density/Rural | 37061 | 1.797 | -0.003 | -0.006 | -0.009 | -0.012 | -0.015 | |
| non_metro | Mixed | 356 | 0.786 | -0.023 | -0.046 | -0.068 | -0.088 | -0.108 | |
| non_metro | Mixed High | 80 | 0.365 | -0.011 | -0.021 | -0.031 | -0.041 | -0.050 | |
| non_metro | Residential | 15647 | 1.245 | -0.016 | -0.033 | -0.048 | -0.064 | -0.079 | |
| non_metro | TOD | 6 | 0.180 | -0.005 | -0.009 | -0.013 | -0.017 | -0.021 | |
Household AADVMT Sensitivity
| Δ TransitPMT wrt Δ AADVMT | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | TransitPMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 1.373 | -0.040 | -0.079 | -0.116 | -0.152 | -0.187 | ||
| non_metro | 65023 | 1.601 | 0.021 | 0.043 | 0.065 | 0.087 | 0.110 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 1.154 | -0.043 | -0.083 | -0.122 | -0.160 | -0.196 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 1.219 | -0.040 | -0.078 | -0.115 | -0.151 | -0.186 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 1.256 | -0.038 | -0.074 | -0.109 | -0.143 | -0.176 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 2.233 | -0.043 | -0.086 | -0.127 | -0.167 | -0.206 | |
| non_metro | <1k | 45003 | 1.804 | 0.025 | 0.050 | 0.076 | 0.102 | 0.129 | |
| non_metro | 1k-5k | 16470 | 1.207 | 0.014 | 0.028 | 0.043 | 0.058 | 0.073 | |
| non_metro | 5k-10k | 3101 | 0.825 | 0.010 | 0.019 | 0.029 | 0.039 | 0.049 | |
| non_metro | >10k | 449 | 0.549 | 0.004 | 0.009 | 0.013 | 0.018 | 0.022 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 0.935 | -0.019 | -0.037 | -0.055 | -0.072 | -0.089 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 1.236 | -0.035 | -0.068 | -0.100 | -0.132 | -0.162 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 1.822 | -0.061 | -0.119 | -0.175 | -0.229 | -0.282 | |
| non_metro | <$40k | 27719 | 1.037 | 0.010 | 0.021 | 0.032 | 0.043 | 0.054 | |
| non_metro | $40k-$80k | 21443 | 1.739 | 0.023 | 0.047 | 0.071 | 0.095 | 0.120 | |
| non_metro | >$80k | 15861 | 2.313 | 0.036 | 0.072 | 0.110 | 0.148 | 0.187 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 1.384 | -0.042 | -0.083 | -0.122 | -0.160 | -0.196 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 1.181 | -0.044 | -0.087 | -0.128 | -0.167 | -0.204 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 1.456 | -0.037 | -0.073 | -0.108 | -0.141 | -0.174 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 2.249 | -0.034 | -0.068 | -0.101 | -0.132 | -0.164 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 1.340 | -0.039 | -0.077 | -0.114 | -0.149 | -0.183 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 3.169 | -0.048 | -0.094 | -0.140 | -0.185 | -0.229 | |
| non_metro | Employment | 11873 | 1.478 | 0.019 | 0.037 | 0.057 | 0.076 | 0.096 | |
| non_metro | Low Density/Rural | 37061 | 1.797 | 0.025 | 0.050 | 0.076 | 0.103 | 0.130 | |
| non_metro | Mixed | 356 | 0.786 | 0.008 | 0.016 | 0.024 | 0.033 | 0.041 | |
| non_metro | Mixed High | 80 | 0.365 | 0.004 | 0.008 | 0.013 | 0.017 | 0.022 | |
| non_metro | Residential | 15647 | 1.245 | 0.015 | 0.029 | 0.044 | 0.060 | 0.075 | |
| non_metro | TOD | 6 | 0.180 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.005 | 0.006 | 0.008 | |
Household Income Sensitivity
| Δ TransitPMT wrt Δ income | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | TransitPMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 1.373 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.001 | ||
| non_metro | 65023 | 1.601 | 0.020 | 0.038 | 0.054 | 0.070 | 0.085 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 1.154 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.002 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 1.219 | 0.000 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.002 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 1.256 | 0.000 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 2.233 | 0.004 | 0.007 | 0.011 | 0.014 | 0.016 | |
| non_metro | <1k | 45003 | 1.804 | 0.022 | 0.042 | 0.061 | 0.079 | 0.096 | |
| non_metro | 1k-5k | 16470 | 1.207 | 0.015 | 0.029 | 0.041 | 0.053 | 0.064 | |
| non_metro | 5k-10k | 3101 | 0.825 | 0.010 | 0.019 | 0.028 | 0.036 | 0.044 | |
| non_metro | >10k | 449 | 0.549 | 0.007 | 0.013 | 0.018 | 0.023 | 0.028 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 0.935 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 1.236 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 1.822 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.002 | |
| non_metro | <$40k | 27719 | 1.037 | 0.013 | 0.025 | 0.036 | 0.046 | 0.056 | |
| non_metro | $40k-$80k | 21443 | 1.739 | 0.021 | 0.041 | 0.059 | 0.076 | 0.092 | |
| non_metro | >$80k | 15861 | 2.313 | 0.028 | 0.054 | 0.078 | 0.101 | 0.122 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 1.384 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.001 | -0.001 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 1.181 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.002 | -0.003 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 1.456 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 2.249 | 0.007 | 0.014 | 0.020 | 0.026 | 0.031 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 1.340 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 3.169 | 0.009 | 0.017 | 0.025 | 0.032 | 0.038 | |
| non_metro | Employment | 11873 | 1.478 | 0.018 | 0.035 | 0.050 | 0.065 | 0.079 | |
| non_metro | Low Density/Rural | 37061 | 1.797 | 0.022 | 0.042 | 0.061 | 0.079 | 0.095 | |
| non_metro | Mixed | 356 | 0.786 | 0.010 | 0.018 | 0.027 | 0.034 | 0.042 | |
| non_metro | Mixed High | 80 | 0.365 | 0.005 | 0.009 | 0.013 | 0.017 | 0.020 | |
| non_metro | Residential | 15647 | 1.245 | 0.015 | 0.029 | 0.043 | 0.055 | 0.066 | |
| non_metro | TOD | 6 | 0.180 | 0.002 | 0.004 | 0.006 | 0.008 | 0.010 | |
Freeway Supply Sensitivity
| Δ TransitPMT wrt Δ FwyLaneMiPC | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | TransitPMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 1.373 | -0.037 | -0.072 | -0.107 | -0.140 | -0.172 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 1.154 | -0.034 | -0.068 | -0.100 | -0.131 | -0.160 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 1.219 | -0.034 | -0.068 | -0.100 | -0.131 | -0.161 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 1.256 | -0.033 | -0.066 | -0.097 | -0.127 | -0.157 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 2.233 | -0.052 | -0.103 | -0.152 | -0.201 | -0.248 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 0.935 | -0.025 | -0.049 | -0.073 | -0.096 | -0.118 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 1.236 | -0.033 | -0.066 | -0.097 | -0.128 | -0.157 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 1.822 | -0.048 | -0.095 | -0.140 | -0.184 | -0.227 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 1.384 | -0.038 | -0.074 | -0.110 | -0.144 | -0.178 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 1.181 | -0.035 | -0.068 | -0.101 | -0.132 | -0.162 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 1.456 | -0.038 | -0.075 | -0.111 | -0.146 | -0.181 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 2.249 | -0.051 | -0.101 | -0.150 | -0.198 | -0.244 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 1.340 | -0.035 | -0.070 | -0.103 | -0.136 | -0.167 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 3.169 | -0.080 | -0.157 | -0.233 | -0.307 | -0.378 | |
Transit Supply Sensitivity
| Δ TransitPMT wrt Δ TranRevMiPC | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | TransitPMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 1.373 | 0.101 | 0.210 | 0.326 | 0.451 | 0.585 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 1.154 | 0.076 | 0.157 | 0.245 | 0.339 | 0.439 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 1.219 | 0.078 | 0.161 | 0.251 | 0.346 | 0.448 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 1.256 | 0.087 | 0.181 | 0.281 | 0.388 | 0.503 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 2.233 | 0.219 | 0.457 | 0.712 | 0.985 | 1.278 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 0.935 | 0.063 | 0.130 | 0.202 | 0.279 | 0.362 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 1.236 | 0.087 | 0.181 | 0.282 | 0.391 | 0.507 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 1.822 | 0.142 | 0.294 | 0.458 | 0.633 | 0.819 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 1.384 | 0.100 | 0.207 | 0.323 | 0.447 | 0.579 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 1.181 | 0.073 | 0.152 | 0.237 | 0.327 | 0.424 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 1.456 | 0.115 | 0.240 | 0.373 | 0.517 | 0.670 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 2.249 | 0.180 | 0.371 | 0.574 | 0.789 | 1.015 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 1.340 | 0.098 | 0.204 | 0.318 | 0.439 | 0.569 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 3.169 | 0.330 | 0.682 | 1.056 | 1.449 | 1.863 | |
Walk PMT
Model specification
The specification for the Bike PMT model has been documented in Task2. Here it is replicated for a quick reference.
## $metro
##
## Call:
## pscl::hurdle(formula = int_cround(td.miles.Walk) ~ AADVMT + Workers +
## LogIncome + VehPerDriver + LifeCycle + Age0to14 + CENSUS_R +
## D1B + D2A_EPHHM + FwyLaneMiPC + TranRevMiPC:D4c + D5 + D3apo |
## AADVMT + Workers + LogIncome + LifeCycle + Age0to14 + CENSUS_R +
## D1B:D2A_EPHHM + D3apo + D5 + TranRevMiPC, data = ., na.action = na.exclude,
## weights = .$hhwgt)
##
## Pearson residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -6.8215 -0.4480 -0.2391 0.0718 51.7264
##
## Count model coefficients (truncated poisson with log link):
## Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept) -0.596925 0.110574 -5.40
## AADVMT 0.001578 0.000158 9.98
## Workers 0.068028 0.009465 7.19
## LogIncome 0.074321 0.009257 8.03
## VehPerDriver -0.151092 0.018988 -7.96
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children -0.035200 0.019375 -1.82
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester -0.124616 0.025034 -4.98
## LifeCycleSingle -0.475727 0.032175 -14.79
## Age0to14 0.133135 0.008171 16.29
## CENSUS_RNE 0.048620 0.021734 2.24
## CENSUS_RS -0.059372 0.022520 -2.64
## CENSUS_RW 0.079812 0.020692 3.86
## D1B 0.000303 0.000248 1.22
## D2A_EPHHM 0.038470 0.032372 1.19
## FwyLaneMiPC -20.149955 32.500687 -0.62
## D5 0.006643 0.000900 7.38
## D3apo 0.013995 0.001030 13.58
## TranRevMiPC:D4c 0.000389 0.002203 0.18
## Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) 0.00000006723543680 ***
## AADVMT < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## Workers 0.00000000000065942 ***
## LogIncome 0.00000000000000099 ***
## VehPerDriver 0.00000000000000176 ***
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children 0.06926 .
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester 0.00000064267001481 ***
## LifeCycleSingle < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## Age0to14 < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## CENSUS_RNE 0.02528 *
## CENSUS_RS 0.00838 **
## CENSUS_RW 0.00011 ***
## D1B 0.22220
## D2A_EPHHM 0.23469
## FwyLaneMiPC 0.53527
## D5 0.00000000000016064 ***
## D3apo < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## TranRevMiPC:D4c 0.85989
## Zero hurdle model coefficients (binomial with logit link):
## Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept) -1.730454 0.148971 -11.62
## AADVMT -0.003185 0.000279 -11.43
## Workers 0.188077 0.014898 12.62
## LogIncome 0.040863 0.013591 3.01
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children -0.367228 0.028854 -12.73
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester -0.590055 0.033665 -17.53
## LifeCycleSingle -0.721178 0.034678 -20.80
## Age0to14 0.234953 0.015637 15.03
## CENSUS_RNE 0.069644 0.032723 2.13
## CENSUS_RS -0.048277 0.029543 -1.63
## CENSUS_RW 0.179580 0.028942 6.20
## D3apo 0.018510 0.001562 11.85
## D5 0.042998 0.004210 10.21
## TranRevMiPC 8.674384 0.855645 10.14
## D1B:D2A_EPHHM 0.014234 0.001615 8.81
## Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## AADVMT < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## Workers < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LogIncome 0.0026 **
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## LifeCycleSingle < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## Age0to14 < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## CENSUS_RNE 0.0333 *
## CENSUS_RS 0.1022
## CENSUS_RW 0.00000000055 ***
## D3apo < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## D5 < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## TranRevMiPC < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## D1B:D2A_EPHHM < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Number of iterations in BFGS optimization: 39
## Log-likelihood: -5.63e+04 on 33 Df
##
## $non_metro
##
## Call:
## pscl::hurdle(formula = int_cround(td.miles.Walk) ~ AADVMT + HhSize +
## LogIncome + VehPerDriver + LifeCycle + Age0to14 + Age65Plus +
## CENSUS_R + D1B + D1B:D2A_EPHHM + D3bpo4 | AADVMT + Workers +
## LogIncome + HhSize + Age0to14 + CENSUS_R + D3apo + D5, data = .,
## na.action = na.exclude, weights = .$hhwgt)
##
## Pearson residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -4.3313 -0.3020 -0.1661 -0.0764 35.0914
##
## Count model coefficients (truncated poisson with log link):
## Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept) -1.435987 0.144029 -9.97
## AADVMT -0.000243 0.000207 -1.17
## HhSize 0.058387 0.009955 5.87
## LogIncome 0.159945 0.012693 12.60
## VehPerDriver -0.058067 0.018809 -3.09
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children 0.033676 0.029915 1.13
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester 0.253318 0.035646 7.11
## LifeCycleSingle 0.258747 0.042474 6.09
## Age0to14 0.082278 0.013558 6.07
## Age65Plus -0.120327 0.019623 -6.13
## CENSUS_RNE -0.046959 0.030663 -1.53
## CENSUS_RS -0.122348 0.024467 -5.00
## CENSUS_RW 0.101452 0.025156 4.03
## D1B -0.032239 0.004998 -6.45
## D3bpo4 -0.002106 0.000509 -4.14
## D1B:D2A_EPHHM 0.090030 0.007911 11.38
## Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## AADVMT 0.240
## HhSize 0.0000000044817 ***
## LogIncome < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## VehPerDriver 0.002 **
## LifeCycleCouple w/o children 0.260
## LifeCycleEmpty Nester 0.0000000000012 ***
## LifeCycleSingle 0.0000000011155 ***
## Age0to14 0.0000000012904 ***
## Age65Plus 0.0000000008675 ***
## CENSUS_RNE 0.126
## CENSUS_RS 0.0000005715884 ***
## CENSUS_RW 0.0000550735773 ***
## D1B 0.0000000001120 ***
## D3bpo4 0.0000350674863 ***
## D1B:D2A_EPHHM < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## Zero hurdle model coefficients (binomial with logit link):
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) -3.496908 0.163075 -21.44 < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## AADVMT -0.000759 0.000239 -3.17 0.0015 **
## Workers 0.061349 0.015200 4.04 0.000054364064470 ***
## LogIncome 0.154760 0.015459 10.01 < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## HhSize 0.156757 0.010996 14.26 < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## Age0to14 0.050910 0.019273 2.64 0.0083 **
## CENSUS_RNE 0.152501 0.037688 4.05 0.000052016240971 ***
## CENSUS_RS -0.185892 0.028801 -6.45 0.000000000108760 ***
## CENSUS_RW 0.352937 0.032581 10.83 < 0.0000000000000002 ***
## D3apo 0.015708 0.002013 7.80 0.000000000000006 ***
## D5 -0.065921 0.021396 -3.08 0.0021 **
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Number of iterations in BFGS optimization: 29
## Log-likelihood: -4.11e+04 on 27 DfPopulation Density (D1B) Sensitivity
| Δ WalkPMT wrt Δ D1B | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | WalkPMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 0.580 | 0.003 | 0.005 | 0.008 | 0.011 | 0.013 | ||
| non_metro | 65023 | 0.400 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.004 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 0.411 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 0.496 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.004 | 0.005 | 0.006 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 0.625 | 0.003 | 0.006 | 0.008 | 0.011 | 0.014 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 0.849 | 0.009 | 0.017 | 0.025 | 0.034 | 0.042 | |
| non_metro | <1k | 45003 | 0.369 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | |
| non_metro | 1k-5k | 16470 | 0.445 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.006 | 0.007 | |
| non_metro | 5k-10k | 3101 | 0.607 | 0.003 | 0.007 | 0.011 | 0.015 | 0.019 | |
| non_metro | >10k | 449 | 0.610 | 0.010 | 0.021 | 0.034 | 0.048 | 0.064 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 0.460 | 0.003 | 0.005 | 0.008 | 0.010 | 0.013 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 0.549 | 0.003 | 0.005 | 0.008 | 0.010 | 0.013 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 0.697 | 0.003 | 0.005 | 0.008 | 0.011 | 0.014 | |
| non_metro | <$40k | 27719 | 0.308 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.003 | |
| non_metro | $40k-$80k | 21443 | 0.420 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.004 | |
| non_metro | >$80k | 15861 | 0.521 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.005 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 0.523 | 0.002 | 0.004 | 0.007 | 0.009 | 0.011 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 0.446 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 0.644 | 0.005 | 0.010 | 0.014 | 0.019 | 0.024 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 0.940 | 0.011 | 0.022 | 0.033 | 0.043 | 0.054 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 0.587 | 0.002 | 0.005 | 0.007 | 0.010 | 0.012 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 1.131 | 0.012 | 0.024 | 0.036 | 0.047 | 0.059 | |
| non_metro | Employment | 11873 | 0.404 | 0.002 | 0.004 | 0.006 | 0.009 | 0.011 | |
| non_metro | Low Density/Rural | 37061 | 0.371 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
| non_metro | Mixed | 356 | 0.585 | 0.012 | 0.025 | 0.039 | 0.053 | 0.069 | |
| non_metro | Mixed High | 80 | 0.495 | 0.013 | 0.027 | 0.042 | 0.058 | 0.076 | |
| non_metro | Residential | 15647 | 0.464 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.005 | |
| non_metro | TOD | 6 | 0.286 | 0.010 | 0.021 | 0.034 | 0.048 | 0.063 | |
Household AADVMT Sensitivity
| Δ WalkPMT wrt Δ AADVMT | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | WalkPMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 0.580 | -0.004 | -0.007 | -0.011 | -0.015 | -0.019 | ||
| non_metro | 65023 | 0.400 | -0.002 | -0.004 | -0.006 | -0.008 | -0.010 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 0.411 | -0.004 | -0.008 | -0.012 | -0.016 | -0.020 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 0.496 | -0.004 | -0.008 | -0.012 | -0.016 | -0.020 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 0.625 | -0.004 | -0.008 | -0.011 | -0.015 | -0.019 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 0.849 | -0.003 | -0.005 | -0.008 | -0.011 | -0.014 | |
| non_metro | <1k | 45003 | 0.369 | -0.002 | -0.004 | -0.006 | -0.008 | -0.010 | |
| non_metro | 1k-5k | 16470 | 0.445 | -0.002 | -0.004 | -0.006 | -0.008 | -0.010 | |
| non_metro | 5k-10k | 3101 | 0.607 | -0.002 | -0.005 | -0.007 | -0.010 | -0.012 | |
| non_metro | >10k | 449 | 0.610 | -0.002 | -0.004 | -0.006 | -0.008 | -0.010 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 0.460 | -0.002 | -0.005 | -0.007 | -0.009 | -0.011 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 0.549 | -0.004 | -0.007 | -0.011 | -0.014 | -0.018 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 0.697 | -0.005 | -0.010 | -0.015 | -0.020 | -0.025 | |
| non_metro | <$40k | 27719 | 0.308 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.003 | -0.004 | -0.005 | |
| non_metro | $40k-$80k | 21443 | 0.420 | -0.002 | -0.004 | -0.006 | -0.009 | -0.011 | |
| non_metro | >$80k | 15861 | 0.521 | -0.003 | -0.006 | -0.010 | -0.013 | -0.016 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 0.523 | -0.004 | -0.007 | -0.011 | -0.015 | -0.019 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 0.446 | -0.004 | -0.009 | -0.013 | -0.018 | -0.022 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 0.644 | -0.003 | -0.007 | -0.010 | -0.014 | -0.017 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 0.940 | -0.002 | -0.004 | -0.005 | -0.007 | -0.009 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 0.587 | -0.004 | -0.008 | -0.011 | -0.015 | -0.019 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 1.131 | 0.000 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | |
| non_metro | Employment | 11873 | 0.404 | -0.002 | -0.004 | -0.006 | -0.008 | -0.009 | |
| non_metro | Low Density/Rural | 37061 | 0.371 | -0.002 | -0.004 | -0.006 | -0.008 | -0.010 | |
| non_metro | Mixed | 356 | 0.585 | -0.002 | -0.005 | -0.007 | -0.009 | -0.012 | |
| non_metro | Mixed High | 80 | 0.495 | -0.002 | -0.004 | -0.006 | -0.008 | -0.010 | |
| non_metro | Residential | 15647 | 0.464 | -0.002 | -0.004 | -0.006 | -0.008 | -0.010 | |
| non_metro | TOD | 6 | 0.286 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.002 | -0.003 | -0.004 | |
Household Income Sensitivity
| Δ WalkPMT wrt Δ income | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | WalkPMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 0.580 | 0.004 | 0.008 | 0.011 | 0.014 | 0.017 | ||
| non_metro | 65023 | 0.400 | 0.008 | 0.016 | 0.023 | 0.030 | 0.036 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 0.411 | 0.003 | 0.005 | 0.008 | 0.010 | 0.012 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 0.496 | 0.003 | 0.007 | 0.009 | 0.012 | 0.015 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 0.625 | 0.004 | 0.008 | 0.012 | 0.016 | 0.019 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 0.849 | 0.006 | 0.011 | 0.016 | 0.020 | 0.025 | |
| non_metro | <1k | 45003 | 0.369 | 0.008 | 0.015 | 0.021 | 0.027 | 0.033 | |
| non_metro | 1k-5k | 16470 | 0.445 | 0.009 | 0.017 | 0.025 | 0.033 | 0.040 | |
| non_metro | 5k-10k | 3101 | 0.607 | 0.012 | 0.023 | 0.034 | 0.044 | 0.054 | |
| non_metro | >10k | 449 | 0.610 | 0.012 | 0.024 | 0.035 | 0.045 | 0.054 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 0.460 | 0.003 | 0.006 | 0.008 | 0.011 | 0.013 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 0.549 | 0.004 | 0.007 | 0.010 | 0.013 | 0.016 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 0.697 | 0.005 | 0.009 | 0.014 | 0.018 | 0.021 | |
| non_metro | <$40k | 27719 | 0.308 | 0.006 | 0.012 | 0.017 | 0.022 | 0.027 | |
| non_metro | $40k-$80k | 21443 | 0.420 | 0.009 | 0.017 | 0.024 | 0.031 | 0.038 | |
| non_metro | >$80k | 15861 | 0.521 | 0.011 | 0.021 | 0.030 | 0.039 | 0.048 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 0.523 | 0.004 | 0.007 | 0.010 | 0.013 | 0.015 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 0.446 | 0.003 | 0.006 | 0.009 | 0.011 | 0.013 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 0.644 | 0.004 | 0.008 | 0.012 | 0.016 | 0.019 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 0.940 | 0.006 | 0.012 | 0.017 | 0.022 | 0.026 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 0.587 | 0.004 | 0.008 | 0.011 | 0.014 | 0.018 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 1.131 | 0.007 | 0.014 | 0.020 | 0.026 | 0.032 | |
| non_metro | Employment | 11873 | 0.404 | 0.008 | 0.016 | 0.024 | 0.030 | 0.037 | |
| non_metro | Low Density/Rural | 37061 | 0.371 | 0.008 | 0.015 | 0.021 | 0.028 | 0.033 | |
| non_metro | Mixed | 356 | 0.585 | 0.013 | 0.025 | 0.036 | 0.047 | 0.057 | |
| non_metro | Mixed High | 80 | 0.495 | 0.011 | 0.022 | 0.032 | 0.041 | 0.050 | |
| non_metro | Residential | 15647 | 0.464 | 0.009 | 0.018 | 0.026 | 0.034 | 0.041 | |
| non_metro | TOD | 6 | 0.286 | 0.007 | 0.013 | 0.019 | 0.025 | 0.030 | |
Freeway Supply Sensitivity
| Δ WalkPMT wrt Δ FwyLaneMiPC | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | WalkPMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 0.580 | 0.000 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.002 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 0.411 | 0.000 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 0.496 | 0.000 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 0.625 | 0.000 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.002 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 0.849 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.002 | -0.003 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 0.460 | 0.000 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.001 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 0.549 | 0.000 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.002 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 0.697 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.002 | -0.003 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 0.523 | 0.000 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.002 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 0.446 | 0.000 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 0.644 | 0.000 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.002 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 0.940 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.003 | -0.003 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 0.587 | 0.000 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.002 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 1.131 | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.002 | -0.003 | -0.004 | |
Transit Supply Sensitivity
| Δ WalkPMT wrt Δ TranRevMiPC | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| metro | Category | n | WalkPMT | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | |
| overall | |||||||||
| metro | 72913 | 0.580 | 0.007 | 0.014 | 0.021 | 0.028 | 0.035 | ||
| population_per_sqm | |||||||||
| metro | <1k | 7755 | 0.411 | 0.005 | 0.009 | 0.014 | 0.019 | 0.024 | |
| metro | 1k-5k | 38783 | 0.496 | 0.005 | 0.011 | 0.017 | 0.022 | 0.028 | |
| metro | 5k-10k | 18000 | 0.625 | 0.007 | 0.014 | 0.022 | 0.029 | 0.036 | |
| metro | >10k | 8375 | 0.849 | 0.012 | 0.023 | 0.035 | 0.047 | 0.058 | |
| Income | |||||||||
| metro | <$40k | 26484 | 0.460 | 0.005 | 0.011 | 0.016 | 0.022 | 0.027 | |
| metro | $40k-$80k | 22503 | 0.549 | 0.006 | 0.013 | 0.019 | 0.026 | 0.032 | |
| metro | >$80k | 23926 | 0.697 | 0.008 | 0.017 | 0.025 | 0.033 | 0.042 | |
| DevelopmentType | |||||||||
| metro | Employment | 13440 | 0.523 | 0.006 | 0.013 | 0.019 | 0.025 | 0.032 | |
| metro | Low Density/Rural | 7204 | 0.446 | 0.005 | 0.010 | 0.015 | 0.020 | 0.025 | |
| metro | Mixed | 4183 | 0.644 | 0.008 | 0.016 | 0.024 | 0.032 | 0.040 | |
| metro | Mixed High | 998 | 0.940 | 0.009 | 0.019 | 0.028 | 0.037 | 0.046 | |
| metro | Residential | 46503 | 0.587 | 0.007 | 0.014 | 0.021 | 0.028 | 0.035 | |
| metro | TOD | 585 | 1.131 | 0.010 | 0.021 | 0.031 | 0.042 | 0.052 | |
Phase II
The models (AADVMT model, trip frequency model and person mile traveled model for bike, walk, and transit) are applied to RVMPO data using the visioneval framework with RSPM/VisionEval sythesized households and supplemental block group built environment level inputs. Below are the model prediction outputs, and compared with related results from OHAS for RVMPO. Comparing with RSPM VMT/Alt mode trips output is to be accomplished.
Predictions from the New Models
| Trips | PMT | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Category | n | AADVMT | BikeTrips | WalkTrips | TransitTrips | BikePMT | WalkPMT | TransitPMT | ||
| Overall | ||||||||||
| RVMPO | 74045 | 41.800 | 0.146 | 0.891 | 0.144 | 0.290 | 0.578 | 0.751 | ||
| DevelopmentType | ||||||||||
| Rural | 6476 | 49.200 | 0.158 | 0.754 | 0.134 | 0.294 | 0.513 | 0.816 | ||
| Urban | 67569 | 41.100 | 0.145 | 0.905 | 0.145 | 0.290 | 0.584 | 0.745 | ||
| Income | ||||||||||
| <$40k | 31432 | 25.100 | 0.124 | 0.762 | 0.180 | 0.167 | 0.482 | 0.676 | ||
| $40k-$80k | 18071 | 43.800 | 0.149 | 0.907 | 0.125 | 0.288 | 0.586 | 0.754 | ||
| >$80k | 24542 | 61.800 | 0.172 | 1.045 | 0.111 | 0.449 | 0.694 | 0.844 | ||
| Popuplation per Square Mile | ||||||||||
| <1k | 19126 | 42.300 | 0.143 | 0.710 | 0.133 | 0.249 | 0.476 | 0.739 | ||
| 1k-5k | 35477 | 42.300 | 0.144 | 0.898 | 0.141 | 0.294 | 0.579 | 0.753 | ||
| 5k-10k | 18211 | 40.700 | 0.151 | 1.071 | 0.157 | 0.327 | 0.682 | 0.757 | ||
| >10k | 1231 | 36.900 | 0.157 | 0.876 | 0.202 | 0.258 | 0.575 | 0.792 | ||
RSPM Predictions
TODO
OHAS
Those are the weighted average trip and person mile traveled per household by mode from the 2012 Oregon Household Activity Survey for RVMPO.
| Trips | PMT | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n | Category | BikeT | DrivingT | TransitT | WalkT | BikeM | DrivingM | TransitM | WalkM | ||
| Overall | |||||||||||
| 1119 | RVMPO | 0.206 | 8.100 | 0.109 | 0.879 | 0.360 | 36.600 | 0.591 | 0.285 | ||
| Income | |||||||||||
| 367 | <$40k | 0.138 | 6.500 | 0.144 | 0.798 | 0.164 | 27.200 | 0.762 | 0.222 | ||
| 329 | $40k-$80k | 0.455 | 9.200 | 0.014 | 0.777 | 0.763 | 39.100 | 0.050 | 0.313 | ||
| 235 | >$80k | 0.072 | 8.970 | 0.114 | 1.186 | 0.300 | 53.900 | 0.845 | 0.336 | ||
Phase III
All modules in the VETravelDemand R package have been tested to work with the develop branch of VisionEval using the RVMPO data. Automated testing (continuous integration) have been put in place to make sure the code/package passes all tests and is in working condition with the latest version of VisionEval all the time. And if anything breaks automated tests, authors of the packages will be notified through email (see also Task 3).